Confidence index

In April 2005, AIGA began conducting a quarterly survey of design leaders to assemble an authoritative statement on the current conditions within the design economy.

This Design Leaders Confidence Index is modeled on the confidence indices developed by the Conference Board for private sector corporate leaders.

Each quarter we obtain the answers to a few simple questions from several hundred design leaders-the possible responses to the following questions are: substantially better, moderately better, same, moderately worse or substantially worse.

• How do you rate present business conditions for the economy as a whole, as compared with six months ago?
• How do you rate present business conditions for design, as compared with six months ago?
• In looking ahead six months as compared with today, do you think business conditions for the economy as a whole will be:
• In appraising the prospects for design, do you think business over the next six months, as compared with today, will be:
• Compared to [three months ago], are the chances of hiring additional staff:
• Compared to [three months ago], are the chances of purchasing additional hardware and software:

Over time, the responses enable AIGA to develop a confidence index of conditions in the profession that will be helpful to members and their colleagues in judging current conditions nationwide. The index will also help us in advocating the interests of the design community in Washington and with sponsors.

Most recent results

AIGA’s Design Leaders Confidence Index continued to drop in the third quarter of 2011, slipping from 92.27 to 86.63—the lowest measure since the second quarter of 2009. Designers’ confidence had escaped the post-recession trough for fifteen months but appears to be headed downward again, undoubtedly influenced by the substantial media focus on the economy and its weakness for the past year—particularly during these early stages of the presidential campaign.

The most recent AIGA survey of more than 300 design leaders reveals that they are cautious in their projections of growth, rather then deeply pessimistic about the economy. For instance, only 20.9 percent believe the overall economy is worse now than six months ago and fewer still (16.2 percent) feel the design economy is worse than in April 2011. Even fewer believe that conditions will be worse in six months: 15.5 percent projecting a worsening national economy and only 11.9 percent believing a weakening, either moderate or substantial, in the design economy.

Over a quarter (27.7 percent) of those surveyed felt that their likelihood of hiring additional staff would be greater than today, and over one in three (37.6 percent) thought their chance of investing in additional hardware and software would be better in six months.

These data suggest an overall drop in design leaders’ confidence from earlier periods, yet few believe conditions are deteriorating dramatically in the current time frame or in the coming six months. Only 15.8 percent thought their chances of hiring would be lower in six months and only 13.4 percent thought they would be less likely to invest in hardware and software six months from now.