AIGA Design Leaders Confidence Index

In April 2005, AIGA began conducting a quarterly survey of design leaders to assemble an authoritative statement on the current conditions within the design economy.

This Design Leaders Confidence Index is modeled on the confidence indices developed by the Conference Board for private sector corporate leaders.

Each quarter we obtain the answers to a few simple questions from several hundred design leaders—the possible responses to the following questions are: substantially better, moderately better, same, moderately worse or substantially worse.

• How do you rate present business conditions for the economy as a whole, as compared with six months ago?
• How do you rate present business conditions for design, as compared with six months ago?
• In looking ahead six months as compared with today, do you think business conditions for the economy as a whole will be:
• In appraising the prospects for design, do you think business over the next six months, as compared with today, will be:
• Compared to [three months ago], are the chances of hiring additional staff:
• Compared to [three months ago], are the chances of purchasing additional hardware and software:

Over time, the responses enable AIGA to develop a confidence index of conditions in the profession that will be helpful to members and their colleagues in judging current conditions nationwide. The index will also help us in advocating the interests of the design community in Washington and with sponsors.

The quarterly index for July 2009 has gained dramatically from the previous quarter, increasing from 67 to 88, and indicates confidence that demand for design services is improving. This is the second quarter of increased confidence in the design economy overall.

The profession’s leaders have not been this confident about conditions in the design economy since October 2007, when the index reached 86. The benchmark for judging this index is 100, where the confidence level was when AIGA began its quarterly tracking in April 2005.

As of this reading, 31 percent feel both the design economy and the economy as a whole are worse now than six months ago (down from 56 percent in April, in the case of the design economy). However, only 9 percent believe the design economy will weaken over the next six months, and 53 percent feel it will improve moderately or substantially. Design leaders are even more optimistic about the growth of the economy in general over the next six months.

One in three design leaders believe that their likelihood of adding new staff is less than it was on April 1, 2009; only 14 percent feel they are more likely to add staff now than they had anticipated at the start of the quarter. This is a modest reduction in hiring prospects.